CONTEXT

The withdrawal of U.S. development and humanitarian aid, notably with the closure of the USAID agency on February 7, 2024[1], has created a significant funding gap in several sectors including health, education, and disaster response. While this situation is dire for Southeast Asian populations, it also offers a window of opportunity for the European Union, which is well-positioned to intervene as a reliable partner by capitalizing on existing aid frameworks and already established strategic partnerships with ASEAN. The European Union, which is the fourth largest foreign investor[2] and the third trade partner of ASEAN[3], could thereby benefit from mutually beneficial development. EU aid aimed at filling these gaps must be accompanied by strengthened collaboration with ASEAN through increased funding and expansion of its programs, which would help counter Chinese influence while ensuring sustainable development and regional stability.

EU’S CURRENT AID TO SOUTHEAST ASIA

The EU is a major partner in development and humanitarian aid in Southeast Asia:

Humanitarian Aid

In 2025, the EU allocated €61 million for crises in Southeast Asia, prioritizing Myanmar and Bangladesh. This sum includes €10.3 million for disaster preparedness and €50.8 million for direct humanitarian needs [4]. As part of its bilateral partnership with ASEAN, the European Union also implemented the humanitarian program “EU Support to the ASEAN Humanitarian Assistance Center (AHA) and Emergency Response (EU SAHA),” which involves a funding envelope of €7.2 million for the period 2020-2025. [5]

Development Aid

The “EU Support to ASEAN Regional Integration” (ARISE) program allocated approximately €40 million for the period 2017-2023. In parallel, the enhanced EU-ASEAN regional dialogue instrument (E-READI) commits €20 million from 2017 to 2025 to support thematic dialogues covering around forty priority areas. Bilateral partnerships exist with Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei. Finally, under the broader Global Gateway strategy, the EU committed at the December 2022 commemorative summit to mobilize €10 billion to finance connectivity projects with ASEAN by 2027. The ASEAN Catalytic Green Finance Facility, supported by the EU with €50 million, finances climate-resilient infrastructure such as renewable energy and sustainable transport [6]. All these actions contribute to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and support flagship initiatives such as SWITCH-Asia, SMART Green ASEAN Cities, and Horizon Europe, thus promoting inclusive, sustainable, and innovative growth in the ASEAN region [7]. Initiatives like CRIMARIO II (with €7.5 million allocated for 2020-2024) further strengthen maritime security and regional stability.

ASEAN Development

EU member states have significantly contributed to ASEAN development through bilateral aid, focusing on key areas such as sustainable infrastructure and climate resilience. France committed over €4 billion via the AFD[8], supporting connectivity projects in Indonesia and Vietnam, health initiatives, and maritime security. Germany allocated €184 million to biodiversity, vocational training, and gender equality programs[9].

IMPACT OF THE U.S. AID WITHDRAWAL

The closure of USAID removed a crucial financial lifeline for these countries: In 2024, Myanmar received USD 239 million in humanitarian and development aid, Thailand USD 20 million, Laos USD 50 million, Vietnam USD 135 million, Indonesia USD 151 million, Cambodia USD 98 million, and the Philippines USD 144 million. In total, nearly one billion dollars, a vital envelope not only to prevent humanitarian disasters but also to contribute to the economic stability of ASEAN countries. Furthermore, 22% of the USAID budget was allocated to government initiatives (civil society organization engagement, capacity building to address regional challenges, support for human rights awareness, etc.), raising the threat of democratic decline in the beneficiary countries. This democratic rollback could be exploited by China, which may step in to fill the void left by the United States and further serve its interests in the region. This situation increases ASEAN’s dependency on Beijing while limiting multilateral engagement[10][11].

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ENHANCED EU ENGAGEMENT

To effectively address these challenges, the EU should adopt a proactive approach:

Humanitarian Aid

To respond to ecological disasters and political upheavals, particularly in Myanmar, the EU should:

  • Create an EU-ASEAN disaster response fund to strengthen regional capacities through the AHA center;
  • Expand humanitarian aid to replicate suspended U.S. programs in health and education by allocating an additional €50 million per year [12].

Development

To establish itself as a reliable partner and build a lasting relationship with ASEAN, the EU must:

  • Increase funding under the “Global Gateway” initiative to accelerate green infrastructure projects;
  • Co-finance infrastructure with Japan and Australia under Global Gateway, prioritizing climate-resilient projects;
  • Accelerate the adoption of the SCOPE Connectivity program and increase its overall funding from €9.5 million currently to €20 million by 2028, with the support of the NDICI - Global Europe instrument.

Security Cooperation

To help prevent democratic decline and threats to regional security, the EU should:

  • Create an EU-ASEAN governance fund to support democratic institutions;
  • Extend CRIMARIO II to include cybersecurity training and counterterrorism initiatives;
  • Increase naval patrols as part of the coordinated maritime presence in the South China Sea.

CONCLUSION

The withdrawal of U.S. aid represents both a challenge and an opportunity for the EU in Southeast Asia. By strengthening its engagement through targeted funding increases, expanded programs, and strategic partnerships, the EU can effectively fill this gap while promoting sustainable development and regional stability. The EU will thus position itself not only as a normative partner promoting its core values, but also as an economic actor in a resource-rich developing region (gas, oil, rare earths, mineral deposits, etc.). This positioning as a reliable partner can only benefit European businesses and open a new development path beyond the more traditional China-EU and U.S.-EU relations. Immediate action is essential to prevent further setbacks in governance, health, education, and disaster resilience across Southeast Asia.

SOURCES